Market Update
Lower oil prices
Oil prices remained under pressure during the quarter, hitting lows not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. At the end of 2015, prices had fallen by around 70% since mid 2014 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Oil prices have declined significantly over the past couple of years. (Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream) Both technological…
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Weekly Market Update
Notable events over the last week China dominated headlines again as its main stock market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite, entered a bear market on Friday. The index has fallen more than 20% from its December 2015 high, and therefore by definition moves into bear market territory. From its June peak, the index has fallen nearly…
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Europe Q4 2015 Overview
In Europe it was also an eventful quarter. The region’s equity and short-dated government bond markets generally made early gains amid speculation that the ECB would implement further stimulus measures. However, these were momentarily tempered in November following the tragic events in Paris, the longer-term effects of which are likely to include increased government…
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The UK Q4 2015 Overview
The UK sits on the same side of the policy divergence dynamic as the US, with its economy relatively strong compared to most of the other developed markets (although its growth slowed over the course of 2015) (Figure 1). Figure 1: UK GDP growth has been among the strongest in the developed world over…
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Japan Q4 2015 Overview
During the quarter, market participants that expected the BoJ to provide further monetary stimulus were disappointed as it maintained its current asset purchase programme (although it added some minor supplementary measures in December). In justifying the relative lack of action, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pointed to improved underlying inflationary trends in the domestic economy, notwithstanding…
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US Q4 2015 Overview
In early October, market expectations of a 2015 US interest rate rise were low. This reflected the FOMC’s cautious stance at its September meeting, which it had justified on the basis of events in China and the negative effect they would have on global growth, inflation and market stability. However, this soon changed following rhetoric…
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